一個領先指標來判斷美國經濟

1 一個領先指標來判斷美國經濟 United States Initial Jobless Claims

 

2 今天是5月30號我們來看一下美國初次失業救濟金人數的部分

到5月22號為止美國單中處理失業救濟金人數再度下降到40.6萬人

 

3  這個創了2020年3月14號以來的最低的數字

4 四周的移動平均數從前周的50.5萬人下降到45.9萬人，這個也是創了2020年3月肺癌在美國開始擴散後的最低點

5  肺炎每日新增確診人數，因為有接種疫苗，確診陽數從一月至三月上旬出現下降趨勢，再加上拜登政府推出的 1點9兆的經濟紓困方案開始上路

6  很明顯在就業市場開始有明顯的好轉，再來肺癌疫情，雖然一度因為美國部分民眾接種的態度有質疑再加上防疫的動作的鬆懈，所以新增染液的人數有回升的危機，但是自從四月下旬你來這個新增的數字再度出現下降的趨勢，而加州政府預計在六月中旬重新啟動正常的經濟活動，預期美國2020連經濟復甦的速度將持續加速

7  預期成年民眾接種的比率可以超過七成甚至更高，這樣美國疫情將會進一步的持續好轉，所以預期美國就業市場將隨著各州的經濟活動因為逐步地解封後將進步好轉，世界經濟會持續好轉，而且有利台灣對外出口的成長

英文版

1. A leading indicator to judge the United States Initial Jobless Claims

2 today is 30 May. Let's take a look at some of the first unemployment benefits in the United States

As of 22 May, the number of people handling unemployment benefits in the United States dropped again to 406,000

3 the lowest number since 14 March 2,020

The 4 week moving average dropped to 459,000 from 505,000 in the previous week, which is also the lowest point since lung cancer began to spread in the United States in March 2,020

5 new number of confirmed cases of pneumonia per day, due to vaccination, the number of confirmed positive cases showed a downward trend from January to early March, and the 1. 9 trillion economic rescue plan launched by the Biden government began to go on the road

6. It is clear that the employment market has begun to improve significantly, and then there is the lung cancer epidemic. Although there was a crisis of recovery in the number of new dye solutions due to the doubts on the attitude of some people in the United States to vaccination and the slackness of epidemic prevention actions, the new number has shown a downward trend since the end of April,The California government is expected to restart normal economic activities in mid June, and the United States is expected to continue to accelerate its economic recovery in 2020

7. It is expected that the rate of adult population vaccination will exceed 70% or even higher, so that the epidemic situation in the United States will continue to improve. Therefore, it is expected that the U.S. employment market will continue to improve with the economic activities of the States as a result of the gradual release of the embargo, and the world economy will continue to improve, which will be beneficial to the growth of Taiwan's foreign exports

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